Good prospects for the 2015 main wheat and secondary rice crops
By Suhardiyoto Haryadi, independent researcher
05 May 2015
A woman harvests wheat in Bangladesh
The 2014/15 winter crops (including the mostly irrigated winter wheat and secondary rice crops), to be harvested from April onwards, are in the growing stages in most countries. Although the start of the season was characterized by overall below-average rains, which somewhat delayed planting of the winter wheat, secondary rice and other crops, precipitation returned to more normal patterns from December, improving moisture conditions and benefitting early crop development. In China, FAO forecasts the 2015 aggregate wheat production (including the ongoing winter and the forthcoming spring seasons) at 126 million tonnes, similar to last year’s record output. In India, favourable rainfall since December, after below-average rains during October and November, improved prospects for the 2015 wheat crop. Adequate irrigation water supplies, availability of fertilizers and other inputs are expected to benefit yields this season, which are forecast to increase and compensate for an estimated 3 percent contraction in the area sown. As a result, the ‘’Second Advance Estimate’’ from the Ministry of Agriculture points to a 2015 winter wheat “rabi” crop of 95.8 million tonnes, similar to last year’s record output. In Pakistan, the 2015 wheat production forecast stands at about 26 million tonnes, a record level, reflecting an expected improvement in yields on account of favourable weather conditions, and adequate supplies of irrigation water and fertilizers. Harvesting of the 2014/15 rice crop began in December, with the bulk to be collected from March onwards. Prospects are good in Bangladesh, China, the Philippines and Viet Nam. In Sri Lanka, the 2015 ‘’maha’’ season paddy output is expected to recover from last year’s drought-reduced level, reaching 2.7 million tonnes. This mainly reflects favourable rainfall from October to January over eastern, central and northwestern major rice growing areas. By contrast, in Thailand, belowaverage rains between November and mid-February, limited water availability for irrigation, and coupled with generally low prices at sowing time, resulted in lower plantings. Pending a more detailed assessment of the damages due to dry weather, FAO forecasts the 2014/15 secondary season paddy production in Thailand at 9 million tonnes, 8 percent below the good level of 2014. In India, a combination of below average rains at the start of the season and reduced plantings, resulted in a secondary season output of 20.2 million tonnes, 11 percent below the corresponding season of 2013.
The 2014 aggregate cereal output estimated close to last year’s record, with a larger wheat crop almost compensating for reduced rice and maize production Harvesting of the 2014 main season paddy and coarse grains crops has been concluded. FAO’s latest forecast for the 2014 subregional aggregate cereal production has been revised upwards by 1.7 million tonnes since December, to 1 237 million tonnes (rice in paddy terms), similar to last year’s record. A higher wheat crop in 2014 is estimated, which is likely to almost compensate for the expected production declines in rice and maize. Area and yield losses, following irregular monsoon rains and unfavourable weather conditions during the main season, resulted in reduced cereal harvests in Cambodia, India, Laos, Thailand and Sri Lanka. By contrast, gains in national aggregate cereal outputs are recorded in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Pakistan and Timor-Leste, as a result of an overall area expansion, and in the Philippines and Viet Nam reflecting higher yields, following generally favourable weather conditions. In other countries of the subregion, namely Republic of Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) , China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Nepal, the 2014 aggregate cereal outputs are estimated to be close to the levels of 2013. At the subregional level production of paddy rice, accounting for about 55 percent of the total cereal output, is forecast at 667.3 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record. The bulk of the contraction is expected to come from India, the world’s second largest rice producer, where the irregular monsoon rains, coupled with localized floods in July and September, depressed yields of the main ‘’kharif’’ season rice crop. Including the ongoing 2014/15 ‘’rabi’’ secondary crop, India’s 2014 aggregate rice production is officially forecast at 154.6 million tonnes, 3 percent below the 2013 record output. In the DPRK and Sri Lanka, dry weather and reduced irrigation water supplies resulted in considerable declines in rice outputs, which are officially estimated at 2.6 and 3.5 million tonnes, 9 and 25 percent, respectively, lower than the good harvests in 2013. The 2014 aggregate subregional maize production is estimated to have decreased slightly to 290.6 million tonnes, reflecting reduced outputs in India and China. By contrast, the subregional 2014 wheat crop has been revised upwards somewhat since December to a record level of 252.1 million tonnes. Cereal exports forecast to decrease considerably but remain well above average, while imports forecast at record levels In general, the Far East subregion is a net exporter of rice and net importer of wheat. Mainly reflecting higher imports forecast for coarse grains in China, the aggregate cereal imports in the 2014/15 marketing year are projected to increase slightly compared to 2013/14 and reach a record level of 106.4 million tonnes. Total coarse grains imports, the largest component, are projected at 58 million tonnes, an increase of 3.2 million tonnes over last year’s record. This is attributed to considerably higher barley and sorghum imports from China, which are forecast to reach an all-time high of 5.6 and 6.4 million tonnes in 2014/15 (October/September), up 50 and 54 percent from the previous year, respectively. With higher demand from the feed industries, private buyers are increasingly importing sorghum and barley as a substitute to maize. Unlike maize, sorghum and barley are not subject to the annual Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) restrictions and import prices of these crops are considerably lower than the price of locally-produced maize. By contrast, total wheat imports are forecast to decrease by 2 million tonnes during the 2014/15 marketing year (July/June), as a result of lower wheat imports from China, given the 2014 record harvest and large carryover stocks. Likewise, aggregate rice imports are set at 11.1 million tonnes, some 10 percent below last year’s level but still 7 percent above the preceding five-year average. Aggregate cereal exports in 2014/15 are forecast to decrease by 10 percent from the previous year’s record level, mainly due to an anticipated 5.6-milllion tonne contraction in the exportable surplus from India. Exports of rice (milled basis) in 2015 are anticipated to decrease slightly compared to the previous year but remain considerably above the fiveyear average. Significantly lower estimates for rice exports from India are expected to be partially compensated by an increase in volumes from Thailand and Viet Nam. Rice prices generally unchanged, while those of wheat flour showed mixed trends Domestic rice prices, in local currencies, remained stable in January and were generally lower than a year earlier in most countries. This reflects weak trade activity, coupled with ongoing government procurement programmes that offset the downward pressure on prices due to the good 2014 main harvests. In Viet Nam, prices have been declining since October, mainly due to good supplies from the 10th Month harvest, completed by December, as well as the beginning of the 2014/15 main season winter/spring crop. By contrast, rice prices strengthened in the past months and were above their year-earlier values in Myanmar, as a result of strong border trade with China, and in Indonesia, where they continued to rise to record levels, supported by a contraction of the 2014 output and the higher procurement price. In Sri Lanka, rice prices decreased slightly in January, with the recently-started 2015 main “maha” season harvest estimated at a good level. However, prices remained at near-record levels after steady increases in the previous months on account of last year’s sharply reduced production. Prices of wheat flour showed generally mixed trends in January in local currencies. They increased in China, where the national average price reached a record level in January, averaging CNY 4.76 (about USD 0.76) per kg, some 6 percent higher than a year earlier, due to low availabilities of high quality wheat. To limit the rise in prices, the Government released stocks in late January. In Bangladesh, wheat prices rose markedly mainly as a result of reduced quantities distributed by the Government through Open Market Sales (OMS), following lower public imports in the previous months. By contrast, quotations of wheat and wheat flour declined in the past months in Pakistan and were generally below their values in January of last year, reflecting good supplies from the 2014 record production. In India, prices of wheat remained unchanged in January, due to adequate supplies following last year’s record harvest.
Excerpted from FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation No. 1, March 2015
http://www.fao.org/3/a-I4410E.pdf#page=22
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